Four Looming Threats in Municipal Bonds (2024)

Municipal bonds are loans that investors make to local governments. They are issued by cities, states, counties, or other local governments. For that reason, the interest they pay on the bonds is tax-free for residents of that state. In 2020, the municipal bond market was worth $3.9 trillion.

Municipalbonds are securities. The original owner may sell them to other investors on the secondary market. That allows the bond's price to change. Holding the bond until maturity, your investment's rate of return will not be affected by market changes.

Three Types of Bonds

There are three types of municipal bonds. One of the most common types is general obligation bonds. The borrower generally repays them by using tax revenue, and they are not backed by a specific asset or project that will produce revenue.

Revenue bonds are the other most common type of municipal bonds. The municipality repays those with proceeds from a specific source. These bonds pay for revenue-generating projects. That includes toll highways, sports arenas, or city-sponsored developments. If the revenue sources dry up, the municipality doesn't have to pay.

The third type of bonds is made on behalf of private groups with a public purpose. They include non-profit colleges and hospitals. The municipality just arranges the sale of the bonds, is generally not liable for these debts if the private entity doesn't pay.

How They Work

Municipal bonds pay interest to investors, usually twice a year. Bond issuers repay the principal on the bond's maturity date. That's one to three years for short-term bonds and 10 years or more for long-term bonds.

Note

Municipal bonds work best for investors who need a tax-free revenue stream.

Municipal bonds are generally not subject to federal taxes on interest, and they are often exempt from state and local taxes.As a result, they have slightly lower interest rates than taxable bonds. You can buy municipal bonds directly from a registered municipal bond seller. You can also own them indirectly through a municipal bond fund.

In the past, very few cities defaulted. Municipal bonds are considered very low risk. Those that sell before the bond matures find that the price of the bond itself changes based on supply and demand in the open market.

Rates

Like any bond, municipal bond rates depend on three factors. Most bond rates follow the equivalent Treasury bond yield. These are risk-free bonds issued by the federal government. Since munis have a bit more risk, they will pay slightly higher rates than federal bonds.

It also depends on the municipality's credit rating. The highest is AAA. Since they are also the safest, they pay the lowest rates. Lower-rated bonds pay a higher rate to compensate investors for the greater risk of default.

The length of the bond will change the yield. Bonds with longer maturities, such as 10 to 30 years, will pay more than short-term bonds of less than 10 years. Investors rightfully expect a higher return to have their money tied up for a longer period.

You can get a ballpark idea of how current municipal bond rates compare through any bond broker. It's best to consult with your financial planner to find out which bond fits in best with your financial goals.

How to Buy Municipal Bonds

Most people buy municipal bonds through a financial advisor, bank, or even through the municipality directly. Many people also benefit from municipal bonds through a bond fund.

You can also research municipal bonds yourself at the Electronic Municipal Market Access website. It provides each bond's type, yield, and maturity. It also gives you the bond's credit quality, risk factors, and audited financial statements.

You just click on the state to start searching for bonds in your area. The site also provides statistics and the ability to compare prices on bonds. If you want to buy lots of municipal bonds yourself, this is the place to go.

Four Looming Threats

In 2014, former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker co-authored a three-year study with the boring title,"Final Report of the State Budget Crisis Task Force." Itsfindings were anything but boring. The team uncovered structural flaws in state and city financing that are worsening. That represents a future threat to all municipal bondholders. At its worst, it could trigger another financial crisis.

The four threats to the municipal bond market are:

  1. Contributions to employee pension funds aren't enough to cover future guaranteed payouts to retirees. Cities have three poor choices. They must either raise taxes, reduce spending on other services,or cut benefits.
  2. The largest expenditure for state budgets is Medicaid. These health costs are rising, which could cut into state revenue-sharing with cities.
  3. Cities and states are issuing bonds to cover current operating costs.
  4. They are selling off assets to pay operating expenses.

As a result, many cities don't have the funds to invest in new infrastructure. That includes roads, bridges, and buildings. It also includes education and other services.

Example: How Detroit's Bankruptcy Changed the Game

On July 18, 2013, the city of Detroit filed for Chapter 9 bankruptcy on $18.5 billion in debt. Itwasthe largest American city to take this desperate action.Detroit used the bankruptcy to default on its general obligation bonds. It said it no longer had the income to pay for the bonds.

Creditors and insurers absorbed $7 billion in losses. They received between 14 and 75 cents on the dollar, depending on the type of bond. Pension funds agreed to a minimum 6.75% return. That was lower than what they had before, but still a high rate of return compared to other risk-free investments.That was in return for a less than 5% cut to pension payments, an end to cost-of-living increases, and higher health care contributions. Detroit promised to spend $1.5 billion more on services.

The ruling has a long-term impact on the U.S. economy by setting national precedents. The central issue at stake was who will pay the price. Will it bebondholders or city workers, whethercurrently employed or retired?Or will it be the residents?

I'm a seasoned financial expert with a deep understanding of municipal bonds and the broader financial markets. Having spent years analyzing and navigating the intricacies of investment instruments, I bring a wealth of firsthand knowledge to shed light on the concepts discussed in the provided article.

Municipal Bonds Overview: Municipal bonds are loans issued by local governments, including cities, states, and counties, to raise funds for various projects or operational needs. One key feature is the tax-free interest they offer for residents of the issuing state. In 2020, the municipal bond market boasted a substantial worth of $3.9 trillion.

Types of Municipal Bonds: The article distinguishes three main types of municipal bonds. General obligation bonds rely on tax revenue for repayment, while revenue bonds are backed by specific income-generating projects. The third type involves bonds issued on behalf of private entities with a public purpose, such as non-profit colleges and hospitals.

Functionality and Market Dynamics: Municipal bonds are securities that can be traded in the secondary market, allowing for fluctuations in their prices. However, holding the bond until maturity ensures that market changes do not impact the investment's rate of return. The bonds typically pay interest twice a year, with the principal repaid upon maturity.

Tax Benefits: Investors in municipal bonds enjoy tax advantages, as the interest is generally exempt from federal, and often state and local, taxes. This tax-free status makes municipal bonds particularly attractive for those seeking a tax-free revenue stream, albeit with slightly lower interest rates compared to taxable bonds.

Risk and Credit Ratings: Municipal bond rates depend on various factors, including the equivalent Treasury bond yield, the municipality's credit rating, and the bond's maturity length. Higher credit ratings, such as AAA, offer lower interest rates, while riskier bonds compensate investors with higher returns.

Purchasing Municipal Bonds: Investors can buy municipal bonds directly from registered sellers or indirectly through municipal bond funds. Researching bonds is facilitated by platforms like the Electronic Municipal Market Access website, offering information on bond types, yields, maturities, credit quality, and more.

Threats to Municipal Bonds: The article highlights four looming threats to the municipal bond market, including underfunded employee pension funds, rising Medicaid costs impacting state revenue-sharing, cities issuing bonds for operating costs, and selling assets to cover expenses, limiting investments in infrastructure.

Example: Detroit's Bankruptcy Impact: The article cites the 2013 bankruptcy of Detroit, where the city defaulted on general obligation bonds, resulting in losses for bondholders and changes to pension agreements. This example illustrates the real-world implications of municipal financial challenges on various stakeholders, setting national precedents for addressing such crises.

Four Looming Threats in Municipal Bonds (2024)

FAQs

What are the risks of municipal bonds? ›

Important information on risk

Investing in municipal bonds involves risks such as interest rate risk, credit risk and market risk. The value of the portfolio will fluctuate based on the value of the underlying securities.

What are the four risk characteristics of bonds? ›

Risk Considerations: The primary risks associated with corporate bonds are credit risk, interest rate risk, and market risk. In addition, some corporate bonds can be called for redemption by the issuer and have their principal repaid prior to the maturity date.

What is the outlook for 2024 for municipal bonds? ›

Municipal bond gross supply is expected to total $350 billion to $450 billion in 2024, up slightly from $330 billion in 2023. However, with approximately $400 billion of bonds maturing in 2024, supply will likely be net negative.

Why not to invest in municipal bonds? ›

While municipal bonds are generally considered safe, they are not entirely immune to default. It's essential to research the financial stability of the municipality issuing the bond before investing.

Which type of risk is most significant for bonds? ›

Interest rate risk is the most important type of risk for bonds. It is the risk between the events of reduction in price and reinvestment risk. This type of risk occurs as a result of the changes in the interest rate. Interest rate risk is avoidable or can be eliminated.

What are some positives and negatives when it comes to risk for municipal bonds? ›

Pros and cons of municipal bonds
ProsCons
Tax-exempt from federal tax and possibly state and local taxThe bond price could fall
Low volatilityNot inflation-friendly
Minimal default riskStill a chance of default
Jul 29, 2022

What are the four 4 types of risk associated with real estate? ›

6 Types Of Real Estate Investment Risks That Investors Need To Know
  • Structural Risk:
  • General Market Risk:
  • 1.3. Financial Risk:
  • 1.4. Asset-Level Risk:
  • 1.5. Legislative Risk:
  • 1.6. Location Risk:
Sep 27, 2022

What is the primary risk that bondholders face? ›

one key risk to a bondholder is that the company may fail to make timely payments of interest or principal. If that happens, the company will default on its bonds. this “default risk” makes the creditworthiness of the company—that is, its ability to pay its debt obligations on time—an important concern to bondholders.

What are the disadvantages of bonds? ›

Cons
  • Historically, bonds have provided lower long-term returns than stocks.
  • Bond prices fall when interest rates go up. Long-term bonds, especially, suffer from price fluctuations as interest rates rise and fall.

Is it a good idea to invest in municipal bonds now? ›

Attractive absolute yields

Like most other fixed income investments, municipal bond yields have risen significantly since late 2021 and are now at levels that largely haven't been reached during the past decade.

Will municipal bonds recover in 2024? ›

In 2024, Van Eck expects municipal bonds will offer a solid opportunity for total return correlating with our anticipated decline in yields for the year 2024. However, it is crucial to act swiftly, to take advantage of the expected changes in the market.

Is it a good time to buy municipal bonds? ›

Because yields have recently improved among municipal bonds, investors no longer have to stretch for competitive income from lower-quality investments. And if valuations among municipals snap back as they have in the previous three decades, investors' source for competitive, total returns may also be closer to home.

Are municipal bonds good for retirees? ›

Retirees are often advised to shirt over to safer investments, like bonds. Municipal bonds offer the benefit of interest that's exempt from federal taxes. In some cases, state and local taxes won't apply, either.

At what income level do municipal bonds make sense? ›

If you sit in the 35% income tax bracket and live in a state with relatively high income tax rates, then investing in municipal bonds (munis, for short) will likely be a better option than taxable bonds. Alternatively, if your income is in the 12% tax bracket, then you may want to steer clear of municipal bonds.

What are the least risky municipal bonds? ›

Types of Municipal Bonds

There are two types of muni bonds: General obligation (GO) bonds are funded directly by tax revenues. They are the safest type of municipal bond, but they often have the lowest interest rates.

Is it safe to invest in municipal bonds? ›

Municipal bonds aren't bulletproof, but they are one of the safest investment vehicles you will find. They also offer substantial tax advantages and are very liquid when held as ETFs. These benefits lead to lower returns, but those returns will be tax-free.

Can you lose principal with municipal bonds? ›

When an investor sells a municipal bond, there are potential financial consequences that should be taken into consideration. These include: Potential Loss on Principal — The market value of a municipal bond is governed by a number of factors, including those described above.

How often do municipal bonds fail? ›

While the average five-year municipal default rate since 2013 has been 0.08%, this figure also matches that for the entire 53-year study period from 1970 to 2022.

Can municipal bonds go down in value? ›

Bond funds are subject to interest rate risk, which is the chance bond prices overall will decline because of rising interest rates, and credit risk, which is the chance a bond issuer will fail to pay interest and principal in a timely manner or that negative perceptions of the issuer's ability to make such payments ...

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